Sustainable transport options.
The EU’s climate targets are clear: a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. The industry has to do this while the volume of goods transported by road is projected to increase by almost 60% by 2050.
Electric vans will be the most widespread.
In the future, we will see more and more electric trucks on the road, with annual sales figures set to increase sixfold and rise sharply. Currently, China is the most widespread user, especially in the 3.5 tonne category.
It is expected that 90% of electric vehicles will be sold in the 3-5-12 tonne category. Sales of classic 40-tonne tractors are estimated at 10%.
Electric truck: eight times more expensive.
The price of electric trucks increases in proportion to their size, and today they are available for 200-800 thousand euros. They cost eight times more than diesel tractors. In terms of consumption, an electric tractor uses 144kWh of electricity per 100 kilometres. At German electricity prices, they cover 100 km on €45. Again based on German diesel prices, that’s one and a half times more than their diesel counterparts. In terms of range, the advantage of diesel is ten times greater, as electric trucks can be planned for up to 300 kilometres. Even with the best chargers, it takes about 1.5 hours to charge a car, while the most common chargers on the market, with 22kW, take 10-12 hours.
Intermodal transport: even today it is more expensive than road transport.
According to the industry, intermodal transport is one form of transport that has long been identified as a major source of carbon dioxide emissions reduction.
The EU target is for 30% of transport over 300km to be rail by 2030 and 50% by 2050. This mode of transport is, in the expert’s experience, more time-consuming, more unpredictable in terms of timetables and, not least, more expensive than road freight. He cites the example that, while it is cheaper to transport goods to England by road than by train, the partners do not really take into account the environmental impact of transport. The future of intermodal transport is that electric trucks, with their current range, can easily deliver goods to their destination in last-mile transport with zero emissions.
Switching to electric vehicles.
According to the speakers at the annual event of the Association of Hungarian Freight Forwarders, the changeover should never be seen as a straight line, because every change generates new problems. If you look at the car manufacturing industry, everyone is aware of the problems of the past period: pandemic, lack of chips, etc. Despite this, they still achieved record profits in 2022. The expert has highlighted a few brands to show where they are on this ‘profit ladder’: e.g. VW 6th, Toyota 11th, Ford 15th, etc. These are well-known brands in Europe, but who are ahead of them? Ferrari tops the list, followed by Tesla, Mercedes, BMW and in fifth place Stellantis. Of these, there is only one manufacturer of electric cars, and that is Tesla. For them it’s not plan B, it’s plan A. The others have the conventional internal combustion vehicles and then, as a secondary, electric vehicles. They would not really benefit from going electric, as they would not make as much money as they do now on the after costs, e.g. oil changes, new brake pads, etc. So if they sell an electric car, they are stepping on their own other foot. It is interesting to look at the sales statistics for the first quarter of 2023.
What does it look like for trucks and lorries?
Obviously, this is a market with fewer players. The bigger companies, such as Volvo, are planning a full switchover by 2040, but all the factories have been promising for some time that they will come up with electric trucks. At the moment, the main way we choose a truck is to look at how much it costs from purchase to use to sale, so the total cost is the primary consideration. When energy efficiency is taken into account, there is no question that electric trucks are 2-3 times more efficient than their combustion engine counterparts.
Electric trucks are only as clean as the grid they are charged from (e.g. electricity generated by coal, or from wind, sun, etc.).
In the EU electricity mix, generation is increasingly shifting towards renewables. China is often accused of doing everything with coal. Yet this year alone they have connected more new solar capacity than the US ever did.
There are also problems with hydrogen propulsion.
the EU expects to see 2 million hydrogen-powered tractors and 5 million light trucks in operation by 2040. Today, 14 hydrogen-powered tractors are on the road worldwide. Hydrogen-powered vehicles cost between €200,000 and €600,000. And they consume 9kg/100km, which at today’s hydrogen prices of €14 is three to five times the cost of a diesel truck. The big advantage is that you can drive up to 600-1000km and fill up the tank in 15-20 minutes. If you have the space, of course. There are 92 in Germany and only 140 in Europe.
Only 4% of hydrogen is green.
The problem with hydrogen is not only that it is expensive (at 2€/kg it would only be a profitable investment), but also that its production is far from environmentally friendly. Only 4% of it is sustainable green hydrogen, 96% is produced by gasification of brown or black coal or by conversion of methane/natural gas.
Only capital-intensive companies are starting to build a green fleet.
In logistics, competition is fierce and customers are price-sensitive, especially because of low margins. The green switchover is expensive and the investment costs will not be recovered in the near future. For this reason, only a few capital-intensive companies will build green fleets in the order of 10, with smaller companies joining the flagship as technologies become more affordable.
